SAIPAN — The strong El Niño gripping the Pacific could extend the typhoon season through the Christmas holiday and possibly into January, National Weather Service Guam Warning Coordination Meteorologist Landon Aydlett said Wednesday on Good Morning Marianas, while drought conditions are expected to begin emerging across Micronesia as early as September.
Aydlett said the monsoon pattern that has soaked the Marianas for more than a week is finally loosening its grip, with winds and showers gradually decreasing through the weekend. The activity driving it, he said, has been a cluster of weak tropical systems well north of the region, which he described as a mosh pit of disorganized disturbances between the Marianas and Japan.
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has upgraded one nearby disturbance, Invest 91W, to a medium chance of development beyond 24 hours, Aydlett said, but he expects any system that forms to be short-lived and no threat to the Marianas as it tracks northeast. A separate weak disturbance near the Marshall Islands is expected to bring a wetter, more seasonable pattern to Chuuk, Yap and Palau.
Aydlett said the pattern matches what forecasters anticipated for an active August north of the region, and warned the bigger El Niño story comes later. As the season progresses, storm activity is expected to drop southward toward Micronesia, and classic El Niño offset years have produced January typhoons, including Ophelia in January 1958, which tracked through all four states of what is now the Federated States of Micronesia.
At the same time, he said, drought conditions are expected to emerge from the southwest near Palau starting in September and October, with 2027 likely to bring widespread, significant drought to the region. Passing storms may deliver rain relief, he said, but potentially with more than communities want.
Aydlett also announced the Tower for Humanity project begins Aug. 29 at the Micronesian Mall on Guam, with a goal of finishing construction by Sept. 9. The project anchors Hunger Action Month and National Preparedness Month events, including a Hunger Action Rally on Saturday, Sept. 5, and a remembrance marking the 25th anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks. Volunteers of all ages are welcome, he said.
Aydlett said he travels to Chuuk and Pohnpei next week for tropical cyclone preparedness and drought mitigation outreach, returning to Guam on Aug. 23, and that NWS staff hope to bring an outreach canvass to Saipan in late September.
For the rest of the week, he said, expect spotty passing showers, briefly heavy at times, with weakening southwest winds and an abundance of sunshine.
