SAIPAN — Two tropical disturbances tracking through Western Micronesia are not expected to threaten the Marianas, but strong trade winds and continued dry conditions are setting up dangerous wildfire conditions through midweek, U.S. National Weather Service Guam meteorologist Landon Aydlett told NMI News Service Monday.
Aydlett said the Joint Typhoon Warning Center opened up Invest 92W and Invest 93W early Monday morning. Invest 92W is near Yap and Invest 93W is near Chuuk Lagoon. He said both are sub-low classifications.
“Will this be a typhoon for Saipan or Tinian? Absolutely not,” Aydlett said.
Aydlett said Invest 92W will be weak and is expected to move up into the Philippine Sea. Invest 93W will track generally west-northwestward over the next several days and could see some development and organization over the next two to three days, he said. He said it is most likely to pass well south of Guam.
Aydlett said the Marianas could see surging trades on the northern periphery of 93W along with spotty showers, more so for Guam and Rota and to a lesser extent for Saipan and Tinian.
He said the disturbance could bring much-needed rainfall to Chuuk State and eastern Yap State, where residents are facing water shortages of two to three weeks. Aydlett said he had been in contact with the Yap disaster coordination office about a fire at the main water plant overnight that he said was being investigated as arson, leaving the area with limited drinking water unless additional chlorine can be obtained.
The bigger concern for the Marianas, Aydlett said, is the wildfire threat. He said all wildfires in the region are man-made, either accidental or deliberate, and they need to stop ahead of the strong trades expected through most of the week. He said the strongest winds are expected around Wednesday, Wednesday night and Thursday.
“If we don’t get any soaking rains, you could have a pretty dire fire situation with these fires that people are starting either accidentally or on purpose,” Aydlett said. “Those embers get sweeped up by the winds, and they can start fires downwind.”
Aydlett said sustained winds at the Saipan International Airport were running about 20 to 25 mph out of the east, with stronger gusts expected through the day. He said debris, downed trees and dead vegetation across the islands are sitting, dying and drying after Sinlaku, providing kindling for any fire.
Aydlett urged residents not to be anxious about the invests but to stay connected to official sources. He said the Climate Prediction Center’s two- and three-week hazards outlook continues to show heightened potential for tropical cyclones across the Marianas and eastward as the region heads deeper into a busier pattern. Aydlett said April and May are typically among the driest months of the year, with soaking rains usually arriving in June and July as the Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough or TUTT season approaches.