SAIPAN – National Weather Service Guam meteorologists warned Thursday that a developing El Nino pattern is shifting tropical cyclone formation toward the Marianas, putting the region in the crosshairs of what could be a busier-than-usual 2026 typhoon season.
Warning Coordination Meteorologist Landon Aydlett and Meteorologist In Charge Brandon Aydlett made the comments during a joint appearance in studio on Good Morning Marianas as the Commonwealth continues recovering from Super Typhoon Sinlaku.
“Things are going to start developing farther east in eastern Micronesia, the Marshall Islands,” Landon Aydlett said. “That’s going to put us in the crosshairs.”
Brandon Aydlett explained that El Nino reverses the normal trade wind pattern across the Pacific. Warm water that is typically pushed toward the Philippines instead shifts to the central and eastern Pacific, with westerly winds developing along the equator. The redistribution of warm surface water also lowers water levels in the western Pacific.
That shift moves the zone of tropical cyclone formation eastward, away from the area near Chuuk, Guam, the CNMI and Yap that has been the dominant formation zone over the last six years. Storms generally track from east to west and west-northwest through the region, which means more storms forming farther east will travel toward the Marianas.
Landon Aydlett pointed to 2015, the last strong El Nino year, as the comparison case. Seven to eight tropical cyclones passed through the lower Marianas that year. Typhoon Dolphin grazed Guam just north of Andersen Air Force Base on May 15, 2015, an 11-year anniversary on Friday. The CNMI saw seven storms pass over or through Rota, Tinian and Saipan in 2015.
The meteorologists cautioned that an increase in activity in the region does not guarantee another direct hit but said the odds of being affected go up significantly, and that storms with wind fields as large as Sinlaku, which stretched roughly 500 miles from tropical storm wind to tropical storm wind, can deliver substantial damage even when the eye passes well offshore.
Landon Aydlett also offered new detail on the Sinlaku impact. The watches and warnings issued for the storm covered all seven Marianas islands, including Agrihan, Alamagan and Pagan in addition to the lower four. Landon Aydlett said that was the first time in his 16 years in the Marianas that watches and warnings were issued for all seven at once.
The eyewall rainfall rates during Sinlaku reached approximately six to eight inches per hour over Saipan, the meteorologists said, with pre-storm water levels already running roughly half a foot above normal across the western Pacific.
Brandon Aydlett described the wind impact in tornado terms. Three-second wind gusts during Sinlaku fell within the range used to assess an EF4 tornado on the enhanced Fujita scale. He said the typhoon effectively functioned as a prolonged, massive EF4 tornado, and credited reinforced concrete construction with making the difference between structures that survived and those that did not.
The meteorologists urged residents not to assume the season is over. They said the months ahead could bring quick succession of storms similar to the 1980s, 1990s and 2015, when systems passed through the region in rapid sequence. They asked residents to begin replenishing emergency supplies, harden structures where possible, and mentally prepare for the possibility of facing another storm.
“Are you ready to go through that?” Brandon Aydlett said. “There’s a mental preparation needed.”
In the near term, the meteorologists said no tropical threats are on the horizon. Trade winds are rebuilding from the east at 10 to 15 miles per hour, with the breeze continuing to build through the weekend. They also said the Marianas could see the first surge of the monsoon coming up from Palau and western Micronesia late this month or in early June, which could bring showers, thunderstorms and gusty southwest winds.