NWS Guam meteorologist says deep convection collapsed overnight, but remnant system will bring unsettled weather to the Marianas through the weekend
SAIPAN — The tropical depression that had been tracking toward the Marianas is now on what a National Weather Service forecaster described Thursday morning as “life support,” with the storm’s core convection collapsing overnight and little chance of recovery. However, residents across the CNMI are still being urged to secure loose objects as the remnant system pushes showers, thunderstorms and gusty southwest winds through the islands into Friday night.
NWS Guam meteorologist Landon Aydlett said the deep convection at the center of Nuri disappeared overnight, a clear signal the system is deteriorating rapidly.
“It’s going to be on its life support,” Aydlett said during an appearance on Good Morning Marianas. “If things don’t start to improve dramatically for Nuri, I think the lifespan of the system indeed will be very short.”
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center issued its 7 a.m. advisory Thursday holding Nuri at 35 mph maximum winds, with the system no longer expected to intensify into a tropical storm. JTWC is forecasting the depression to dissipate within 36 to 48 hours as it tracks northeastward into an increasingly hostile environment for development.
Aydlett said the movement itself is part of the problem for the storm. Northeastward-tracking systems from Yap toward the Marianas are uncommon in the wintertime North Pacific pattern, and the atmospheric environment along that track is unfavorable for any further organization.
No tropical cyclone watches or warnings are in effect for Guam or the CNMI. Tropical storm watches remain in effect for Yap Proper and Ulithi.
Despite the weakening storm, Aydlett said residents should not stand down yet. Showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnant circulation are still moving toward the island chain and could produce locally heavy rainfall in short periods. Winds will shift to come from the southwest rather than the typical trade wind direction, giving conditions a monsoonal character.
“Keep your head on a swivel because we’re going to have showers, thunderstorms and the potential for locally heavy showers and gusty winds over the next 36 hours or so,” he said.
Conditions are expected to improve heading into the weekend, with Aydlett saying breezy, drier weather looks likely by Sunday and Monday.
Aydlett also noted that March tropical activity, while uncommon, is not unprecedented in the region. Eleven years ago, Tropical Storm Bobby formed in the western Marshall Islands and passed through Guam, Rota and the Rota Channel around March 15, 2015, the same year Typhoon Dolphin struck in May.
The National Weather Service will post updates to its Facebook page at U.S. National Weather Service Guam and on its tropical cyclone information page at weather.gov/gum/cyclones.
