Regional weather this week remains under the influence of two large-scale patterns: the monsoon affecting the Marianas and western Micronesia (west of 150°E), and easterly trade winds impacting central and eastern Micronesia (east of 150°E). The main difference from last week is that the monsoon trough has continued to lift toward the northwest.
A circulation has formed in the northern Philippine Sea near 24°N 139°E. However, this system is not currently classified as a numbered disturbance by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), as computer model guidance indicates no development potential in the coming days.
Fair weather continues to dominate central Micronesia, but farther east, a surface trough moving westward through the Marshall Islands is bringing short periods of heavy rainfall and brief, strong gusts of 30 to 40 mph.
In the Marianas, winds will generally range from southeast to southwest throughout the week, leading to generally unstable weather. The gentle southerly flow is expected to support the development of slow-moving showers and thunderstorms. These weather systems may linger for several hours before dissipating, allowing for intervals of blue skies and sunshine. However, conditions are expected to vary frequently, with an overall wet forecast for the week.
Tropical Cyclone Potential and Hazards:
No tropical cyclone activity is expected. With the monsoon trough situated north of the region, the favored area for potential tropical cyclone development remains north of 20°N. However, the latter half of July could see that potential shift southward as the monsoon trough redevelops across the Philippine Sea.
Drought Outlook:
Recent rains across the region have continued to bring relief to most areas experiencing drought. While some atolls in the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) are still facing drought conditions, they have shown improvement in recent days. Rainfall expected in the coming days should help maintain the improving trend. For the most up-to-date Drought Information Statement from the National Weather Service Guam, visit https://www.weather.gov/gum/droughtinformationstatement.
