SAIPAN — Worried about that storm brewing southeast of the Marianas? A National Weather Service forecaster said Monday that a tropical disturbance developing near Pohnpei and Kosrae in eastern Micronesia could affect the Marianas between April 12 and 14, though the system’s track and intensity remain highly uncertain.
Patrick Doll, a lead forecaster at the National Weather Service in Guam, said the disturbance has been tracked by weather models for about a week and a half. He said the agency is more than 80 percent confident the system will develop into something, but its path is less certain.
“Is it coming at the Marianas? Right now, I’m about 60 percent confident that it would,” Doll said during an appearance on Good Morning Marianas Monday morning.
Doll said models are split between two scenarios. One has the system tracking toward and through the Marianas. The other has it curving east, bypassing the islands entirely.
“Both are still possible, but the trend is they’re converging towards something coming at the Marianas,” he said. “With that being said, it’s certainly no time to get too worried. It’s just something to keep an eye on.”
As for intensity, Doll said the range of possibilities runs from a tropical depression to a weak Category 1 typhoon, with most models pointing toward a weak to moderate tropical storm if the system does reach the islands.
He said the next 48 hours are critical. If the system organizes quickly, the probability of at least a tropical depression increases. If it remains disorganized, higher-end scenarios become less likely. If development takes three days or more, the system could arrive near the Marianas before reaching significant strength.
Doll said two key factors are currently not significant obstacles to development, wind shear and dry air. He noted wind shear over the system is running around 10 knots, well below the 20-knot threshold that typically impedes tropical development. Water temperatures near the developing system are around 84 to 85 degrees, warm enough to sustain a tropical system.
He encouraged residents to monitor the NWS Guam website at weather.gov/GUM, particularly the Area Forecast Discussion, which is updated each forecast cycle and explains forecaster thinking in plain language.
“Is there going to be a system that forms? Yes, we’re above 80 percent confidence,” Doll said. “What strength? Your guess is as good as mine.”
Doll also expressed interest in returning to the show for a public question-and-answer session as the system develops.
